This is ostensibly a post about Peloton, but it’s actually about irrational growth expectations. So even if you don’t give two shits about the bike that goes nowhere, it might be of interest. When I was in college, there were two ellipticals at the gym. They were always filled with girls from the sororities. We called them the sorority machines. I used to love those dumb things. Several years later, when I lived in Eugene, Oregon, I went to the YMCA, which, like so many YMCAs, is overflowing with life and kids and old men with sweatbands playing racketball. I love a YMCA, and at this one, I got addicted to this fantastic strength class. I went religiously.
I finally bought a dang Peloton, partly because the thoughtful essays here convinced me it would be a good fit for what I want for and from my exercise. I've had it for four weeks now, I use it every single day, it's everything I hoped for, like, I am embarrassingly into this bike, y'all.
And right when I got it, all these "Spinning Out" articles were building up a head of steam. And, y'know... I was WORRIED, because my Peloton -- or, more accurately, the whole Peloton system, the variety of classes and instructors and programs, the way it seamlessly tracks my output -- had become such a welcome, happy-making part of my daily life. Was Peloton gonna fold, right when I discovered how much I want it in my life??
Even before all of that, I had been trying to justify spending thousands of dollars on a new piece of exercise equipment PLUS committing to the ongoing monthly membership, how it doesn't exactly mesh with my politics and wordlview, how ickily privileged it is to be able to exercise this way. And the clickbait-y hand-wringing headlines really turned that screw, even as I found myself enjoying my Peloton more and more each day.
I keep wondering, how do I reconcile my participation in such an overtly capitalist system, when the products of that system bring me such fundamental, daily happiness? (See also: modern publishing, everything to do with my various digital devices and the many subscriptions I have on them, restaurants/takeout, travel, "owning" my lovely house that is on stolen land, et effing cetera). For now, I guess I just sit with that discomfort, and keep pushing back on the capitalist machine (and offering tangible support to those it harms most directly), and keep pushing my PR on my beloved capitalist-bike.
I would add that this isn't just an issue with capitalism, but an issue particular to the imperatives of asset-managed, finance-driven capitalism. There was a period in the middle of the 20th century where a company that produced slow but steady returns over time (the 1% churn rate you reference) would have been considered the gold standard!
There used to be a saying "no [broker] ever lost their job for buying IBM" - the definition of a big, unsexy monolith. But that saying fell out of fashion around the first 00s tech boom.
I thought from the headline/tag line about irrational growth expectations that this was going to be about the ebbs and flows of personal fitness and how we often feel pushed to improve constantly, with no end in improvement. As though I will someday benchpress 1000 lbs and run an ultra marathon....
The parallels between the tyranny of fitness software/devices (Apple Watch must always tell me if I'm trending up or down, not the same! My treadmill software emails me!) and the business of the fitness world was an interesting train of thought. Endless growth is unsustainable for both.
This article is so relieving. One underexamined thing in the overcapitalized world of working out is the benefits to mental health. I used running for 2 decades as anxiety relief. When I hurt my back I couldn't run anymore, like suddenly and forever. It was quite a blow. I enjoy the YMCA and some of the classes but it is not nearly the same thing as a long rhythmic run by myself working out problems as I go. I suffered for a while, did some unsatisfying and wrong-for-me workouts on youtube during Covid, and then decided just to get a Peloton. It checks all my boxes. I do a HIIT or hills ride for cardio, a scenic ride for my mental health time, and I use the strength and stretching classes. I absolutely love it. And like running, I can just strap in and go.
Thanks for spelling out what I've been thinking about all the Peloton/stock market hubbub. So much this: “its future has been fully alienated from the thing it actually produces, which is a pretty preposterously good workout that’s become a steady and often meaningful part of millions of people’s lives.”
"I just don’t understand how you can look at that demand and think YEP, THAT’S SUSTAINABLE, EXPONENTIAL HOCKEY STICK GROWTH FROM HERE TO ETERNITY, PELOTON FOR PRESIDENT 2024, PUT A PELOTON ON THE MOON!"
Back in late '99, I was telling people I knew to get out of the market because absolutely fucking everything was massively overpriced. The P/E ratio was through the rough and a bunch of people had run their broker loans up to the max percentage (10%), and hello 1929. (Literally: those were the same basic indicators sitting in the exact same place as summer 1929.) They didn't listen to me. My mother didn't listen to me. My ex listened to me, and let me take care of the small number of stocks (telco stocks) she had held since she got them as a gift as a child. (I sold them all in the same year to simplify the taxes and because she needed the money.) Got her out at the top of the market (and then she didn't file). My mother kids about 65% of her profit-sharing goodbye. If you held everything for like 6-7 years you got back more-or-less to where you had been.
All very exciting, but that's a mania for you. At any rate, someone told me that they were still buying Microsoft because it was growing at 20% per year and was then the company with the largest valuation in the entire world. I tried to explain to this dude that the company couldn't grow at 20% per year forever since in 5-10 years the company would be the size of the entire economy which would then have to consist of people making and shipping windows CDs to each; presumably they would also be eating & wearing & drinking those CDs.
But the stock pimpers are there to convince people with more money than brains to dump all their money into whatever stock the pimps bought early so the pimps can get out and leave the suckers holding the bag. It's interesting that such gullibility extends all the way up to the CEO class. The trained suckerization of vast numbers of Americans is a thing to behold.
It's always three AM in Vegas and the golden glow of the slot machine dispensing a 27,000$ payout is always just around the corner. Or, very occasionally, it's arrived so obviously (no) you should take that 27k$, double down and drop it on the roulette table (no, moron) and maybe you'll hit it really big on black (or kiss it all goodbye) and then you'll get a YUGE payout (walk away fool) and you can drop it all at the blackjack table and make ungodly sums; so much you'll bankrupt the casino. (HA! idiot!) and then you can invest it in somewhat (what?) and you can then buy a billion dollar yacht and sit around and be an asshole to everybody (thanks for giving me an interest in rooting against you) like the other rich guys, and maybe go on Fox and talk shit about how liberals stole the election with their Italian navigation satellites and Jewish space laser and also you should cut taxes on rich people.
Then it all goes toes up usually about 5 seconds later and then you can just forget to mention that idiot jag you went on where you kissed it all goodbye. Just think of it as a contribution to the net worth of a bunch of Wall Street creeps, and aren't you grateful?
The idea of having an exercise bike that reports everything I do to central so they can neg me into keeping me involved sounds like some kind of exercise 1984; the entire idea gives me the hives. But if the thing is working for you, please keep on keeping on. Hopefully if they've gotten themselves into a massive debt hole (hopefully not - but I have no damn idea and I'm not interested in getting one) and they go under, they don't kill the electronics on the bike by remote.
We saw the same dynamic at play with cable news. The rates dropped like a stone in the 1st half of 2021 and the reports were "PANIC IN THE NEWSROOM!" and, of course, cable news reponds by trying to reclaim their position. I was wondering what sort of business leader doesn't look at 2016-2020, 2020 especially, and think "this is great but unsustainable," and plan and set expectations accordingly?
Instead, it was a great shock that following a highly contentious administration, a very fraught election year, an insurrection, and year when we were all stuck at home, anxious and looking for information, that when things seemed like they were going to go back to something approaching normal, that cable news viewership would drop off sharply.
Saw the headline and immediately braced myself for yet another "Peloton in crisis" story — I can't believe I ever doubted you! Thank you for this refreshing take on what is so much more than just Peloton's recent drama (or not so drama).
I personally have no real interest in Peloton's product; it's just not my kind of workout (although I have been eyeing up the yoga classes/app subscription). Still, my partner works at Peloton and so I've had something of a front seat to all the internal chaos. Combined with my friends in business journalism and my friends who are Peloton fans, you can imagine we've talked the recent developments through to death! But as always, you managed to combine all those strands into a really compelling dialogue. What's clear to me is that the people who love the product still very much love the product. There are serious kinks to work out with the supply chain, the company needs to pinpoint where it actually wants to go next, but it is so far from the doomsday that the media has been shouting on about.
It mostly makes me sorry for the state of media today. I studied journalism in grad school, worked at a magazine and now freelance alongside more commercial work, so I have a soft spot for traditional media. I *want* it to do well. But the recent coverage, encapsulated in the headlines you shared, makes me have to concede that they're just getting it wrong. Bloody capitalism spares nothing!
Have you read The Mushroom at the End of the World by Anna Lowenhaupt Tsing? It's an anthropological study of the matsutake supply chain in which she addresses the sustainablility of pure capitalist accumulation and the unique (weird) way Americans seem to conflate freedom and commodity auctions among other ecological, sociological, and political implications of that odd market.
A good bit of the beginning (I'm only on p. 96) is about Oregon's place in the supply chain and related logging history.
Yes, yes, yes! I have found it sort of ridiculous how the Peloton naysayers (who were naysayers and skeptics from the start) and much of the media has reacted to Peloton in the last few weeks, and wanted to shout that there are still millions of people who love and take their classes. I mean, that’s pretty impressive for any brand, any company, isn’t it? And not reason for the whole company to just, say, pack up and call it a day… it has felt like some think that any challenges or slow down that Peloton now has means the company leadership will be showing up at people’s houses collecting existing purchased bikes and treads like, “welp, you got us, jig is up.” It’s still a great workout, and Wall Street predictions aren’t going to compel people who are already a fan of the brand or its workouts to suddenly change their minds. That’s not how brand loyalty works, and for whatever flaws their business strategy may have, they are undoubtedly experts at brand communications and audience engagement. (As someone who works in corporate/brand comms, I’m constantly impressed at their efforts.)
We have an “old fashioned” bike trainer in the basement that we use. We used to be triathletes before our knees gave us issues. What I wonder about is how long can the P brand exist with the cult of personality of the instructors? If favorite instructors X and Y leave for another fitness platform, will P subscribers follow?
Thanks for writing this. I have been confused about all the doomsdayesque articles about Peloton, because what do you expect is going to happen with this type of business? They have a great product, the bike, and an ongoing revenue stream, the monthly subscription. Of course there's an initial spike when the product first catches fire and everyone pays that big up-front cost for the bike. But at some point, everyone who can afford a Peloton has bought one, and is now on the sustaining subscription plan. There's no need to buy another bike or additional expensive equipment. Expectations have gotten out of control.
I spent Valentines day in a local flower shop. In addition to my part time job, I grow cut flowers on a tiny farm I live on. Every man walking into that shop was there to make sure he had something so his ass wouldn't get kicked later that day by the whomever person he was buying sweatshop flowers for. We are all stuck in a system we can't get out of. Peleton is just another example of that to me and this article is somehow making me think about the 300+ sweatshop roses I had to de-thorn two days ago. Nobody likes them but everyone keeps buying them out of fear of not buying them.
This post hit me in a few ways! First, I got my Peloton bike at the beginning of COVID because I had a hip stress fracture from running and was told no running, walking or impact type cardio. I was hell bent on sticking to a workout routine after working hard to lose 25 lbs and find a mental outlet. I got the bike in March of 2020 then everything shutdown. What was initially purchased to replace a gym/yoga membership became my connection to the world. I connected with people from all over, joined a few groups and discovered PowerZone, strength training, barre, Pilates, tons of new music. I have since met some of these people in real life. It literally saved this extrovert during the pandemic and my fitness level is the best it’s ever been at 58. I have not talked to a single person who has regretted their decision to buy the bike/Tread or subscribe to the app. Not one. Another example of how the media controls the message but is out of touch with reality.
The second point? Anne your words at the end about PZ FTPs fluctuating? Just took my FTP after a 6 week challenge, after a year break to focus on strength! It went down and kinda crushed me…..so reading this was a good reminder! Thanks for that!
I finally bought a dang Peloton, partly because the thoughtful essays here convinced me it would be a good fit for what I want for and from my exercise. I've had it for four weeks now, I use it every single day, it's everything I hoped for, like, I am embarrassingly into this bike, y'all.
And right when I got it, all these "Spinning Out" articles were building up a head of steam. And, y'know... I was WORRIED, because my Peloton -- or, more accurately, the whole Peloton system, the variety of classes and instructors and programs, the way it seamlessly tracks my output -- had become such a welcome, happy-making part of my daily life. Was Peloton gonna fold, right when I discovered how much I want it in my life??
Even before all of that, I had been trying to justify spending thousands of dollars on a new piece of exercise equipment PLUS committing to the ongoing monthly membership, how it doesn't exactly mesh with my politics and wordlview, how ickily privileged it is to be able to exercise this way. And the clickbait-y hand-wringing headlines really turned that screw, even as I found myself enjoying my Peloton more and more each day.
I keep wondering, how do I reconcile my participation in such an overtly capitalist system, when the products of that system bring me such fundamental, daily happiness? (See also: modern publishing, everything to do with my various digital devices and the many subscriptions I have on them, restaurants/takeout, travel, "owning" my lovely house that is on stolen land, et effing cetera). For now, I guess I just sit with that discomfort, and keep pushing back on the capitalist machine (and offering tangible support to those it harms most directly), and keep pushing my PR on my beloved capitalist-bike.
Yes to all of this!
I would add that this isn't just an issue with capitalism, but an issue particular to the imperatives of asset-managed, finance-driven capitalism. There was a period in the middle of the 20th century where a company that produced slow but steady returns over time (the 1% churn rate you reference) would have been considered the gold standard!
There used to be a saying "no [broker] ever lost their job for buying IBM" - the definition of a big, unsexy monolith. But that saying fell out of fashion around the first 00s tech boom.
I thought from the headline/tag line about irrational growth expectations that this was going to be about the ebbs and flows of personal fitness and how we often feel pushed to improve constantly, with no end in improvement. As though I will someday benchpress 1000 lbs and run an ultra marathon....
The parallels between the tyranny of fitness software/devices (Apple Watch must always tell me if I'm trending up or down, not the same! My treadmill software emails me!) and the business of the fitness world was an interesting train of thought. Endless growth is unsustainable for both.
This article is so relieving. One underexamined thing in the overcapitalized world of working out is the benefits to mental health. I used running for 2 decades as anxiety relief. When I hurt my back I couldn't run anymore, like suddenly and forever. It was quite a blow. I enjoy the YMCA and some of the classes but it is not nearly the same thing as a long rhythmic run by myself working out problems as I go. I suffered for a while, did some unsatisfying and wrong-for-me workouts on youtube during Covid, and then decided just to get a Peloton. It checks all my boxes. I do a HIIT or hills ride for cardio, a scenic ride for my mental health time, and I use the strength and stretching classes. I absolutely love it. And like running, I can just strap in and go.
Thanks for spelling out what I've been thinking about all the Peloton/stock market hubbub. So much this: “its future has been fully alienated from the thing it actually produces, which is a pretty preposterously good workout that’s become a steady and often meaningful part of millions of people’s lives.”
"I just don’t understand how you can look at that demand and think YEP, THAT’S SUSTAINABLE, EXPONENTIAL HOCKEY STICK GROWTH FROM HERE TO ETERNITY, PELOTON FOR PRESIDENT 2024, PUT A PELOTON ON THE MOON!"
Back in late '99, I was telling people I knew to get out of the market because absolutely fucking everything was massively overpriced. The P/E ratio was through the rough and a bunch of people had run their broker loans up to the max percentage (10%), and hello 1929. (Literally: those were the same basic indicators sitting in the exact same place as summer 1929.) They didn't listen to me. My mother didn't listen to me. My ex listened to me, and let me take care of the small number of stocks (telco stocks) she had held since she got them as a gift as a child. (I sold them all in the same year to simplify the taxes and because she needed the money.) Got her out at the top of the market (and then she didn't file). My mother kids about 65% of her profit-sharing goodbye. If you held everything for like 6-7 years you got back more-or-less to where you had been.
All very exciting, but that's a mania for you. At any rate, someone told me that they were still buying Microsoft because it was growing at 20% per year and was then the company with the largest valuation in the entire world. I tried to explain to this dude that the company couldn't grow at 20% per year forever since in 5-10 years the company would be the size of the entire economy which would then have to consist of people making and shipping windows CDs to each; presumably they would also be eating & wearing & drinking those CDs.
But the stock pimpers are there to convince people with more money than brains to dump all their money into whatever stock the pimps bought early so the pimps can get out and leave the suckers holding the bag. It's interesting that such gullibility extends all the way up to the CEO class. The trained suckerization of vast numbers of Americans is a thing to behold.
It's always three AM in Vegas and the golden glow of the slot machine dispensing a 27,000$ payout is always just around the corner. Or, very occasionally, it's arrived so obviously (no) you should take that 27k$, double down and drop it on the roulette table (no, moron) and maybe you'll hit it really big on black (or kiss it all goodbye) and then you'll get a YUGE payout (walk away fool) and you can drop it all at the blackjack table and make ungodly sums; so much you'll bankrupt the casino. (HA! idiot!) and then you can invest it in somewhat (what?) and you can then buy a billion dollar yacht and sit around and be an asshole to everybody (thanks for giving me an interest in rooting against you) like the other rich guys, and maybe go on Fox and talk shit about how liberals stole the election with their Italian navigation satellites and Jewish space laser and also you should cut taxes on rich people.
Then it all goes toes up usually about 5 seconds later and then you can just forget to mention that idiot jag you went on where you kissed it all goodbye. Just think of it as a contribution to the net worth of a bunch of Wall Street creeps, and aren't you grateful?
The idea of having an exercise bike that reports everything I do to central so they can neg me into keeping me involved sounds like some kind of exercise 1984; the entire idea gives me the hives. But if the thing is working for you, please keep on keeping on. Hopefully if they've gotten themselves into a massive debt hole (hopefully not - but I have no damn idea and I'm not interested in getting one) and they go under, they don't kill the electronics on the bike by remote.
elm
the eternal con will roll on somewhere else
This reminds me, I should check for a Groupon for bikram yoga in my area.
We saw the same dynamic at play with cable news. The rates dropped like a stone in the 1st half of 2021 and the reports were "PANIC IN THE NEWSROOM!" and, of course, cable news reponds by trying to reclaim their position. I was wondering what sort of business leader doesn't look at 2016-2020, 2020 especially, and think "this is great but unsustainable," and plan and set expectations accordingly?
Instead, it was a great shock that following a highly contentious administration, a very fraught election year, an insurrection, and year when we were all stuck at home, anxious and looking for information, that when things seemed like they were going to go back to something approaching normal, that cable news viewership would drop off sharply.
Saw the headline and immediately braced myself for yet another "Peloton in crisis" story — I can't believe I ever doubted you! Thank you for this refreshing take on what is so much more than just Peloton's recent drama (or not so drama).
I personally have no real interest in Peloton's product; it's just not my kind of workout (although I have been eyeing up the yoga classes/app subscription). Still, my partner works at Peloton and so I've had something of a front seat to all the internal chaos. Combined with my friends in business journalism and my friends who are Peloton fans, you can imagine we've talked the recent developments through to death! But as always, you managed to combine all those strands into a really compelling dialogue. What's clear to me is that the people who love the product still very much love the product. There are serious kinks to work out with the supply chain, the company needs to pinpoint where it actually wants to go next, but it is so far from the doomsday that the media has been shouting on about.
It mostly makes me sorry for the state of media today. I studied journalism in grad school, worked at a magazine and now freelance alongside more commercial work, so I have a soft spot for traditional media. I *want* it to do well. But the recent coverage, encapsulated in the headlines you shared, makes me have to concede that they're just getting it wrong. Bloody capitalism spares nothing!
Have you read The Mushroom at the End of the World by Anna Lowenhaupt Tsing? It's an anthropological study of the matsutake supply chain in which she addresses the sustainablility of pure capitalist accumulation and the unique (weird) way Americans seem to conflate freedom and commodity auctions among other ecological, sociological, and political implications of that odd market.
A good bit of the beginning (I'm only on p. 96) is about Oregon's place in the supply chain and related logging history.
Yes, yes, yes! I have found it sort of ridiculous how the Peloton naysayers (who were naysayers and skeptics from the start) and much of the media has reacted to Peloton in the last few weeks, and wanted to shout that there are still millions of people who love and take their classes. I mean, that’s pretty impressive for any brand, any company, isn’t it? And not reason for the whole company to just, say, pack up and call it a day… it has felt like some think that any challenges or slow down that Peloton now has means the company leadership will be showing up at people’s houses collecting existing purchased bikes and treads like, “welp, you got us, jig is up.” It’s still a great workout, and Wall Street predictions aren’t going to compel people who are already a fan of the brand or its workouts to suddenly change their minds. That’s not how brand loyalty works, and for whatever flaws their business strategy may have, they are undoubtedly experts at brand communications and audience engagement. (As someone who works in corporate/brand comms, I’m constantly impressed at their efforts.)
We have an “old fashioned” bike trainer in the basement that we use. We used to be triathletes before our knees gave us issues. What I wonder about is how long can the P brand exist with the cult of personality of the instructors? If favorite instructors X and Y leave for another fitness platform, will P subscribers follow?
I see your thinly veiled reference to Wilpers! Thanks for this refreshing perspective. Long live PZ training!
Thanks for writing this. I have been confused about all the doomsdayesque articles about Peloton, because what do you expect is going to happen with this type of business? They have a great product, the bike, and an ongoing revenue stream, the monthly subscription. Of course there's an initial spike when the product first catches fire and everyone pays that big up-front cost for the bike. But at some point, everyone who can afford a Peloton has bought one, and is now on the sustaining subscription plan. There's no need to buy another bike or additional expensive equipment. Expectations have gotten out of control.
I spent Valentines day in a local flower shop. In addition to my part time job, I grow cut flowers on a tiny farm I live on. Every man walking into that shop was there to make sure he had something so his ass wouldn't get kicked later that day by the whomever person he was buying sweatshop flowers for. We are all stuck in a system we can't get out of. Peleton is just another example of that to me and this article is somehow making me think about the 300+ sweatshop roses I had to de-thorn two days ago. Nobody likes them but everyone keeps buying them out of fear of not buying them.
This post hit me in a few ways! First, I got my Peloton bike at the beginning of COVID because I had a hip stress fracture from running and was told no running, walking or impact type cardio. I was hell bent on sticking to a workout routine after working hard to lose 25 lbs and find a mental outlet. I got the bike in March of 2020 then everything shutdown. What was initially purchased to replace a gym/yoga membership became my connection to the world. I connected with people from all over, joined a few groups and discovered PowerZone, strength training, barre, Pilates, tons of new music. I have since met some of these people in real life. It literally saved this extrovert during the pandemic and my fitness level is the best it’s ever been at 58. I have not talked to a single person who has regretted their decision to buy the bike/Tread or subscribe to the app. Not one. Another example of how the media controls the message but is out of touch with reality.
The second point? Anne your words at the end about PZ FTPs fluctuating? Just took my FTP after a 6 week challenge, after a year break to focus on strength! It went down and kinda crushed me…..so reading this was a good reminder! Thanks for that!